On April 17, Delhi declared a state of emergency. On a daily basis, 24,375 new coronavirus disease (Covid-19) cases were reported, with a weekly average of 16,225 cases. It had a daily positivity rate of 24.6 percent, with a weekly average of 16.5 percent.
On May 9, the corresponding figures were 13,336, 18,374, 21.7 percent, and 25.3 percent.
The weekly average positivity rate was 32.9 percent on April 26, 27, and 28. The seven-day average of cases peaked at 25,294 on April 23.
The city-fourth state’s wave is fading at the same rate as it rose, and the lockdown is clearly one of the main reasons for this.
It isn’t just Delhi that is affected. On April 13, Maharashtra announced strict restrictions on movement and activities (though not a complete lockdown) (which began the next day), on a day when Mumbai saw 7,873 new cases (weekly average: 8,952) and a positivity rate of 19.01 percent (weekly average: 18.73 percent ).
The state’s announcement of the lockdown was likely delayed. On April 10, the seven-day average of cases in Mumbai reached 9,862, with a weekly average positivity rate of 20.55 percent.
Three weeks later, on May 9, the figures were 2,395 new cases, 2,884 weekly average, 7.34 percent positivity rate, and 9.24 percent positivity rate.
Mumbai had another advantage: it never witnessed the scramble for hospital beds and oxygen that Delhi saw, with anecdotal evidence suggesting that this rush for resources that were either not available or not accessible caused more infections.
The evidence is pretty much irrefutable: in the short term, faced with a surge in infections that could overwhelm the health care system (or which already has), a lockdown helps; and it takes around three weeks to show results.
With Karnataka and Tamil Nadu announcing a two-week complete lockdown on May 10 and Kerala announcing one on May 8 (the government has said it will last until May 17, but it is likely to be extended), three states that accounted for a little more than a quarter (28%) of all Covid cases in the country in the previous seven days should see a turnaround by early June.
Unlike last year, when it was criticised for the economic consequences of the 68-day lockdown from March 25 to May 31, 2020, the Union government has avoided announcing a lockdown, leaving it to the states to do so (and therefore, cop all criticism for it). Despite their effectiveness in the short term, lockdowns are extremely damaging to the economy. That’s why many states and union territories, including Maharashtra and Delhi, tried to delay declaring a lockdown as long as possible. Even today, some states are hesitant to use the term “lockdown.”