According to researchers, India could see another spike in Covid-19 cases as early as August, with the third wave peaking at less than 100,000 infections per day in the best-case scenario and nearly 150,000 in the worst-case scenario. According to Bloomberg, the surge in Covid-19 cases will push the coronavirus pandemic into its third wave, which could peak in October, according to researchers led by Mathukumalli Vidyasagar and Manindra Agrawal at the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) in Hyderabad and Kanpur, respectively. States with high Covid-19 cases, such as Kerala and Maharashtra, could “skew the picture,” Vidyasagar told Bloomberg in an email.
The third wave of Covid-19 is unlikely to be as severe as the second, when India reported over 400,000 cases per day and then began to decline. The researchers’ prediction is based on a mathematical model, which they used to correctly predict the decrease in Covid-19 cases earlier this year.
According to a mathematical model, India’s coronavirus outbreak could peak in the coming days, according to Vidyasagar, a professor at IIT Hyderabad. “According to our estimates, the peak will occur within a few days. By the end of June, we should have reached 20,000 cases per day, according to current projections. By email, Vidyasagar said, “We will revise this as needed.”
However, Vidyasagar’s team was wrong in April when they predicted the wave would peak by the middle of the month. It was due to incorrect parameters, he wrote on Twitter at the time, because “the pandemic was changing rapidly, even wildly, until about a week ago.”
On Sunday, India reported 41,831 Covid-19 cases and 541 deaths, even as the Centre warned ten states, including Kerala, Maharashtra, and the northeastern regions, about the rising infections and urged them to take steps to stop the virus from spreading.
Experts have also warned that the Delta variant of the coronavirus, which spreads as easily as chickenpox and can be transmitted by people who have been vaccinated, could exacerbate the outbreak. According to the Indian Sars-CoV-2 Genomic Consortium (INSACOG), the highly infectious Delta variant of the coronavirus caused nearly 8 out of every 10 Covid-19 cases in May, June, and July.
